Qualification · Qualification 40

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

150.61 – 116.53

60%40%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

152 – 124

Prediction correct · off by 4.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 374 ±12.9

1828BoxerBots

Season APEX 61.4Event APEX 3.24Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 92

2486CocoNuts

Season APEX 244.2Event APEX 93.29Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5461Victorian Engineered Robotic Nation or V.E.R.N.

Season APEX 68.4Event APEX 54.08Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 275.3 ±14.1

9449Yellowjackets

Season APEX 164.3Event APEX 41.79Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2130Alpha+

Season APEX 23.7Event APEX 27.7Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 79

4183Bit Buckets

Season APEX 87.3Event APEX 47.04Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1828, 2486, 5461

/ 100 compat

Projected

150.6 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 1828, 2486, 5461

Auto

32.4 23%

Teleop

87.8 63%

Endgame

19.7 14%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9449, 2130, 4183

/ 100 compat

Projected

116.5 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 9449, 2130, 4183

Auto

10.5 9%

Teleop

71.7 62%

Endgame

33.0 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.79 · Blue 1.4

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score150.6pts

Blue projected score116.5pts

Red win probability60%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 53%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 34.1
Score range: 89–179
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 276 vs event baseline 157.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

374Season APEX275.3

32.4Auto10.5

87.8Teleop71.7

19.7Endgame33

35Consistency27

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	41	11
teleop	76	85
endgame	35	23
foul	0	5
total	152	124

Result

Final score

152 – 124

Prediction correct · off by 4.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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