Qualification · Qualification 4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

180.11 – 63.55

81%19%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

148 – 1

Prediction correct · off by 47.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 317.7 ±13.6

9449Yellowjackets

Season APEX 164.3Event APEX 81.62Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6358The Buhlean Operators

Season APEX 85.2Event APEX 56.32Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8551RoNex

Season APEX 68.2Event APEX 42.17Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 80

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 264.7 ±15.3

8550The Ram Bots

Season APEX 64.2Event APEX 17.04Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 76

7895Trobots

Season APEX 39.4Event APEX -3.92Rank 34Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 94

9726Notus Pirates

Season APEX 161.1Event APEX 50.43Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9449, 6358, 8551

/ 100 compat

Projected

180.1 pts

~2.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 9449, 6358, 8551

Auto

29.2 17%

Teleop

106.8 61%

Endgame

38.2 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8550, 7895, 9726

/ 100 compat

Projected

63.6 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 8550, 7895, 9726

Auto

8.3 14%

Teleop

27.4 48%

Endgame

21.7 38%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.27 · Blue 0.92

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score180.1pts

Blue projected score63.6pts

Red win probability81%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 116.6
Score range: 33–211
Upset likelihood: 19%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 149 vs event baseline 174.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

317.7Season APEX264.7

29.2Auto8.3

106.8Teleop27.4

38.2Endgame21.7

27Consistency30

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	15	0
teleop	112	1
endgame	21	0
foul	0	0
total	148	1

Result

Final score

148 – 1

Prediction correct · off by 47.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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