Qualification · Qualification 39

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

270.91 – 164.33

79%21%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

284 – 134

Prediction correct · off by 21.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 457.8 ±12.2

3006Red Rock Robotics

Season APEX 276.8Event APEX 205.49Rank 3Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3729The Raiders

Season APEX 103.5Event APEX 32.06Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7334Esquimalt Proton Pulverizers

Season APEX 77.5Event APEX 33.36Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 196.5 ±15.1

7895Trobots

Season APEX 39.4Event APEX -3.78Rank 34Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 94

3216MRT

Season APEX 114.7Event APEX 108.86Rank 10Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7497MARAHO

Season APEX 42.4Event APEX 59.25Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 79

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3006, 3729, 7334

/ 100 compat

Projected

270.9 pts

~2.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 3006, 3729, 7334

Auto

33.4 13%

Teleop

155.4 61%

Endgame

66.6 26%

Strengths

· 3006 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7895, 3216, 7497

/ 100 compat

Projected

164.3 pts

~1.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 7895, 3216, 7497

Auto

32.3 20%

Teleop

79.7 49%

Endgame

50.6 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.21 · Blue 1.02

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score270.9pts

Blue projected score164.3pts

Red win probability79%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 106.6
Score range: 136–299
Upset likelihood: 21%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 418 vs event baseline 155.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

457.8Season APEX196.5

33.4Auto32.3

155.4Teleop79.7

66.6Endgame50.6

65Consistency6

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	76	43
teleop	126	33
endgame	82	48
foul	0	10
total	284	134

Result

Final score

284 – 134

Prediction correct · off by 21.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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