Qualification · Qualification 36

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

92.08 – 103.82

46%54%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

136 – 119

Prediction missed · off by 29.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 332.5 ±12.8

74368-Bit Miners

Season APEX 61.6Event APEX 12.05Rank 30Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1569Haywire Robotics

Season APEX 82Event APEX 10.89Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 94

8229Balikbayan Bots

Season APEX 188.9Event APEX 69.14Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 344.5 ±12.7

1891Bullbots

Season APEX 104.6Event APEX 19.14Rank 33Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4175Coded Summit

Season APEX 78.8Event APEX 42.72Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9726Notus Pirates

Season APEX 161.1Event APEX 41.96Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7436, 1569, 8229

/ 100 compat

Projected

92.1 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 7436, 1569, 8229

Auto

7.5 8%

Teleop

50.8 54%

Endgame

35.8 38%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1891, 4175, 9726

/ 100 compat

Projected

103.8 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 1891, 4175, 9726

Auto

8.8 10%

Teleop

43.0 49%

Endgame

35.7 41%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.54 · Blue 1.59

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score92.1pts

Blue projected score103.8pts

Red win probability46%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -11.7
Score range: 64–132
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 255 vs event baseline 152.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

332.5Season APEX344.5

7.5Auto8.8

50.8Teleop43

35.8Endgame35.7

108Consistency14

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	26	32
teleop	64	64
endgame	26	23
foul	20	0
total	136	119

Result

Final score

136 – 119

Prediction missed · off by 29.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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