Qualification · Qualification 35

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

261.5 – 30.28

95%5%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

226 – 29

Prediction correct · off by 18.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 404.1 ±10.8

9438Leopard Tech

Season APEX 48.6Event APEX 13.31Rank 23Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4183Bit Buckets

Season APEX 87.3Event APEX 50.76Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

359Hawaiian Kids

Season APEX 268.2Event APEX 197.43Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 267.4 ±12.8

1566AMMOKNIGHTS

Season APEX 63.7Event APEX -6.45Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 94

7895Trobots

Season APEX 39.4Event APEX -8.26Rank 34Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 94

9449Yellowjackets

Season APEX 164.3Event APEX 44.99Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9438, 4183, 359

/ 100 compat

Projected

261.5 pts

~2.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 9438, 4183, 359

Auto

55.8 22%

Teleop

153.9 59%

Endgame

49.8 19%

Strengths

· 359 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1566, 7895, 9449

/ 100 compat

Projected

30.3 pts

~0.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 1566, 7895, 9449

Auto

10.2 27%

Teleop

14.1 38%

Endgame

13.3 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.52 · Blue 0.61

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score261.5pts

Blue projected score30.3pts

Red win probability95%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 231.2
Score range: 2–290
Upset likelihood: 5%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 255 vs event baseline 153.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

404.1Season APEX267.4

55.8Auto10.2

153.9Teleop14.1

49.8Endgame13.3

69Consistency21

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	15	19
teleop	125	8
endgame	86	2
foul	0	0
total	226	29

Result

Final score

226 – 29

Prediction correct · off by 18.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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