Qualification · Qualification 33

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

44.55 – 95.4

35%65%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

56 – 114

Prediction correct · off by 15 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 220.1 ±13.9

74368-Bit Miners

Season APEX 61.6Event APEX 11.14Rank 30Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11025Garage Gang

Season APEX 55Event APEX 0.75Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 94

3729The Raiders

Season APEX 103.5Event APEX 32.66Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 274.7 ±16.7

8756Magic Valley Logic Control

Season APEX 52.9Event APEX 3.35Rank 20Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 76

8229Balikbayan Bots

Season APEX 188.9Event APEX 69.09Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5871Chickadees

Season APEX 32.9Event APEX 22.96Rank 17Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 76

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7436, 11025, 3729

/ 100 compat

Projected

44.6 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 7436, 11025, 3729

Auto

7.5 23%

Teleop

-2.9 0%

Endgame

28.0 86%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8756, 8229, 5871

/ 100 compat

Projected

95.4 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 8756, 8229, 5871

Auto

3.0 3%

Teleop

69.4 74%

Endgame

21.1 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.21 · Blue 1.85

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score44.6pts

Blue projected score95.4pts

Red win probability35%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 47%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -50.9
Score range: 17–123
Upset likelihood: 35%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 170 vs event baseline 153.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

220.1Season APEX274.7

7.5Auto3

-2.9Teleop69.4

28Endgame21.1

9Consistency110

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	24
teleop	21	74
endgame	14	16
foul	5	0
total	56	114

Result

Final score

56 – 114

Prediction correct · off by 15 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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