Qualification · Qualification 31
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Blue alliance
Predicted score
151.5 – 164.39
46%54%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
181 – 179
Prediction missed · off by 22.1 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 430.3 ±11.7
Season APEX 214.9Event APEX 86.3Rank 4Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 161.1Event APEX 38.94Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 54.3Event APEX 26.26Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 95
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 417 ±13.6
Season APEX 244.2Event APEX 96.22Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 104.6Event APEX 21.25Rank 33Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 68.2Event APEX 46.92Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 80
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 8005, 9726, 5515
57
/ 100 compatProjected
151.5 pts
~1.5 RP (regional)
Teams: 8005, 9726, 5515
Auto
25.2 17%
Teleop
95.8 66%
Endgame
23.8 16%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 55%
Supercharged: 3%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 2486, 1891, 8551
71
/ 100 compatProjected
164.4 pts
~1.6 RP (regional)
Teams: 2486, 1891, 8551
Auto
37.1 24%
Teleop
77.7 50%
Endgame
39.8 26%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 55%
Supercharged: 3%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.52 · Blue 1.61
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setRegional
Red projected score151.5pts
Blue projected score164.4pts
Red win probability46%
Event bonus sample170alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 55%, blue 48%
Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- -12.9
- Score range
- 125–191
- Upset likelihood
- 46%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
430.3Season APEX417
25.2Auto37.1
95.8Teleop77.7
23.8Endgame39.8
0Consistency61
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 19 | 32 |
| teleop | 107 | 97 |
| endgame | 50 | 20 |
| foul | 5 | 30 |
| total | 181 | 179 |
Result
Final score
181 – 179
Prediction missed · off by 22.1 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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