Qualification · Qualification 30

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

128.24 – 174.62

36%64%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

58 – 128

Prediction correct · off by 58.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 308.9 ±12.8

8229Balikbayan Bots

Season APEX 188.9Event APEX 82.87Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8885Socratic Schematics

Season APEX 41.2Event APEX -7.88Rank 35Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 94

4175Coded Summit

Season APEX 78.8Event APEX 53.25Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 335.8 ±12.1

10903The Ionizers

Season APEX 189.9Event APEX 78.37Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7334Esquimalt Proton Pulverizers

Season APEX 77.5Event APEX 36.75Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5461Victorian Engineered Robotic Nation or V.E.R.N.

Season APEX 68.4Event APEX 59.5Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8229, 8885, 4175

/ 100 compat

Projected

128.2 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 8229, 8885, 4175

Auto

15.5 12%

Teleop

91.2 69%

Endgame

25.3 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10903, 7334, 5461

/ 100 compat

Projected

174.6 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 10903, 7334, 5461

Auto

24.4 15%

Teleop

90.9 55%

Endgame

51.3 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.27 · Blue 1.91

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score128.2pts

Blue projected score174.6pts

Red win probability36%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 58%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -46.4
Score range: 101–202
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 186 vs event baseline 152.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

308.9Season APEX335.8

15.5Auto24.4

91.2Teleop90.9

25.3Endgame51.3

179Consistency65

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	6	34
teleop	5	79
endgame	47	15
foul	0	0
total	58	128

Result

Final score

58 – 128

Prediction correct · off by 58.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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