Qualification · Qualification 3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

74.56 – 118.26

37%63%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

97 – 71

Prediction missed · off by 34.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 235.2 ±15.8

4175Coded Summit

Season APEX 78.8Event APEX 40.23Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3729The Raiders

Season APEX 103.5Event APEX 15.98Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8756Magic Valley Logic Control

Season APEX 52.9Event APEX 18.35Rank 20Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 76

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 203 ±14.5

5515Blue Power Robotics

Season APEX 54.3Event APEX 36.81Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 95

1828BoxerBots

Season APEX 61.4Event APEX 20.62Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 92

4183Bit Buckets

Season APEX 87.3Event APEX 60.83Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4175, 3729, 8756

/ 100 compat

Projected

74.6 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 4175, 3729, 8756

Auto

9.1 13%

Teleop

32.5 47%

Endgame

27.6 40%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5515, 1828, 4183

/ 100 compat

Projected

118.3 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 5515, 1828, 4183

Auto

16.2 14%

Teleop

53.2 46%

Endgame

45.6 40%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.23 · Blue 1.9

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score74.6pts

Blue projected score118.3pts

Red win probability37%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 58%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -43.7
Score range: 44–149
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 168 vs event baseline 174.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

235.2Season APEX203

9.1Auto16.2

32.5Teleop53.2

27.6Endgame45.6

45Consistency57

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	5	9
teleop	68	44
endgame	19	18
foul	5	0
total	97	71

Result

Final score

97 – 71

Prediction missed · off by 34.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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