Qualification · Qualification 29

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

42.98 – 244.82

8%92%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

74 – 155

Prediction correct · off by 60.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 220.6 ±12.8

9438Leopard Tech

Season APEX 48.6Event APEX 5.3Rank 23Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2594Naskcorpions

Season APEX 68.5Event APEX 15.94Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3729The Raiders

Season APEX 103.5Event APEX 21.74Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 509.9 ±13

1828BoxerBots

Season APEX 61.4Event APEX 11.9Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 92

2122Team Tators

Season APEX 289.6Event APEX 204.84Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2726Red Pebble Rebels

Season APEX 158.9Event APEX 28.08Rank 31Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9438, 2594, 3729

/ 100 compat

Projected

43 pts

~0.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 9438, 2594, 3729

Auto

11.9 29%

Teleop

26.0 64%

Endgame

3.0 7%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1828, 2122, 2726

/ 100 compat

Projected

244.8 pts

~2.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 1828, 2122, 2726

Auto

50.8 22%

Teleop

112.3 49%

Endgame

65.6 29%

Strengths

· 2122 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.64 · Blue 2.5

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score43pts

Blue projected score244.8pts

Red win probability8%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 58%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -201.8
Score range: 15–273
Upset likelihood: 8%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 229 vs event baseline 153.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

220.6Season APEX509.9

11.9Auto50.8

26Teleop112.3

3Endgame65.6

81Consistency52

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	19	65
teleop	33	84
endgame	22	6
foul	0	0
total	74	155

Result

Final score

74 – 155

Prediction correct · off by 60.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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