Qualification · Qualification 28

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

44.87 – 224.84

10%90%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

37 – 221

Prediction correct · off by 5.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 169.4 ±15.1

1566AMMOKNIGHTS

Season APEX 63.7Event APEX -0.69Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 94

2130Alpha+

Season APEX 23.7Event APEX 33.8Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 79

1569Haywire Robotics

Season APEX 82Event APEX 11.76Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 94

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 370.5 ±12.8

7895Trobots

Season APEX 39.4Event APEX -8.59Rank 34Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 94

5515Blue Power Robotics

Season APEX 54.3Event APEX 26.39Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 95

3006Red Rock Robotics

Season APEX 276.8Event APEX 207.04Rank 3Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1566, 2130, 1569

/ 100 compat

Projected

44.9 pts

~0.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 1566, 2130, 1569

Auto

18.6 34%

Teleop

33.0 60%

Endgame

3.2 6%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7895, 5515, 3006

/ 100 compat

Projected

224.8 pts

~2.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 7895, 5515, 3006

Auto

30.7 14%

Teleop

146.0 68%

Endgame

38.6 18%

Strengths

· 3006 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.69 · Blue 2.44

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score44.9pts

Blue projected score224.8pts

Red win probability10%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -180
Score range: 17–253
Upset likelihood: 10%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 258 vs event baseline 154.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

169.4Season APEX370.5

18.6Auto30.7

33Teleop146

3.2Endgame38.6

97Consistency29

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	8	14
teleop	14	112
endgame	15	95
foul	0	0
total	37	221

Result

Final score

37 – 221

Prediction correct · off by 5.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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