Qualification · Qualification 26

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

169.01 – 124.33

64%36%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

304 – 139

Prediction correct · off by 74.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 520 ±12.2

2486CocoNuts

Season APEX 244.2Event APEX 80.75Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9726Notus Pirates

Season APEX 161.1Event APEX 6.09Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3216MRT

Season APEX 114.7Event APEX 82.17Rank 10Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 313.1 ±14.6

10903The Ionizers

Season APEX 189.9Event APEX 79.12Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8551RoNex

Season APEX 68.2Event APEX 42.74Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 80

11025Garage Gang

Season APEX 55Event APEX 2.47Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 94

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2486, 9726, 3216

/ 100 compat

Projected

169 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 2486, 9726, 3216

Auto

37.5 24%

Teleop

67.2 43%

Endgame

52.2 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10903, 8551, 11025

/ 100 compat

Projected

124.3 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 10903, 8551, 11025

Auto

26.0 25%

Teleop

34.5 33%

Endgame

44.8 43%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.94 · Blue 1.32

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score169pts

Blue projected score124.3pts

Red win probability64%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 62%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 44.7
Score range: 97–196
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 443 vs event baseline 148.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

520Season APEX313.1

37.5Auto26

67.2Teleop34.5

52.2Endgame44.8

0Consistency56

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	40	23
teleop	192	77
endgame	57	34
foul	15	5
total	304	139

Result

Final score

304 – 139

Prediction correct · off by 74.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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