Qualification · Qualification 23

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

174.75 – 45.97

83%17%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

106 – 79

Prediction correct · off by 50.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 248.5 ±13.9

4175Coded Summit

Season APEX 78.8Event APEX 56.97Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3216MRT

Season APEX 114.7Event APEX 97.88Rank 10Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11025Garage Gang

Season APEX 55Event APEX 19.9Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 94

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 218.7 ±15.1

8551RoNex

Season APEX 68.2Event APEX 32.9Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 80

1569Haywire Robotics

Season APEX 82Event APEX 2.65Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 94

2594Naskcorpions

Season APEX 68.5Event APEX 10.42Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4175, 3216, 11025

/ 100 compat

Projected

174.8 pts

~2.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 4175, 3216, 11025

Auto

22.8 15%

Teleop

103.2 66%

Endgame

29.3 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8551, 1569, 2594

/ 100 compat

Projected

46 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 8551, 1569, 2594

Auto

4.6 10%

Teleop

29.2 62%

Endgame

13.5 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.29 · Blue 0.94

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score174.8pts

Blue projected score46pts

Red win probability83%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 7%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 128.8
Score range: 19–202
Upset likelihood: 17%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 185 vs event baseline 152.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

248.5Season APEX218.7

22.8Auto4.6

103.2Teleop29.2

29.3Endgame13.5

77Consistency199

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	35	20
teleop	40	37
endgame	31	17
foul	0	5
total	106	79

Result

Final score

106 – 79

Prediction correct · off by 50.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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