Qualification · Qualification 22

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

102.64 – 121.73

44%56%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

222 – 144

Prediction missed · off by 70.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 509.4 ±11.1

1891Bullbots

Season APEX 104.6Event APEX 6.11Rank 33Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10903The Ionizers

Season APEX 189.9Event APEX 57.63Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8005Mega MeadowBots

Season APEX 214.9Event APEX 38.9Rank 4Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 313.5 ±12.2

6358The Buhlean Operators

Season APEX 85.2Event APEX 53.53Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7895Trobots

Season APEX 39.4Event APEX -1.92Rank 34Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 94

8229Balikbayan Bots

Season APEX 188.9Event APEX 70.12Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1891, 10903, 8005

/ 100 compat

Projected

102.6 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 1891, 10903, 8005

Auto

26.1 27%

Teleop

58.4 60%

Endgame

13.0 13%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6358, 7895, 8229

/ 100 compat

Projected

121.7 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 6358, 7895, 8229

Auto

9.5 8%

Teleop

78.0 65%

Endgame

32.3 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.48 · Blue 1.76

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score102.6pts

Blue projected score121.7pts

Red win probability44%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 58%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -19.1
Score range: 76–149
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-17
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 366 vs event baseline 150.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

509.4Season APEX313.5

26.1Auto9.5

58.4Teleop78

13Endgame32.3

27Consistency158

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	36	19
teleop	115	97
endgame	61	28
foul	10	0
total	222	144

Result

Final score

222 – 144

Prediction missed · off by 70.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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