Qualification · Qualification 21

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

88.48 – 94.13

48%52%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

120 – 17

Prediction missed · off by 54.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 193.4 ±15.1

4183Bit Buckets

Season APEX 87.3Event APEX 37.23Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7497MARAHO

Season APEX 42.4Event APEX 41.19Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 79

1566AMMOKNIGHTS

Season APEX 63.7Event APEX 10.06Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 94

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 178.7 ±17.5

8756Magic Valley Logic Control

Season APEX 52.9Event APEX 24.32Rank 20Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 76

8550The Ram Bots

Season APEX 64.2Event APEX 38.29Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 76

74368-Bit Miners

Season APEX 61.6Event APEX 31.52Rank 30Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4183, 7497, 1566

/ 100 compat

Projected

88.5 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 4183, 7497, 1566

Auto

15.7 17%

Teleop

66.3 73%

Endgame

9.4 10%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8756, 8550, 7436

/ 100 compat

Projected

94.1 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 8756, 8550, 7436

Auto

11.6 12%

Teleop

75.8 79%

Endgame

8.1 8%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.53 · Blue 1.56

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score88.5pts

Blue projected score94.1pts

Red win probability48%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 47%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -5.6
Score range: 60–122
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 137 vs event baseline 155.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

193.4Season APEX178.7

15.7Auto11.6

66.3Teleop75.8

9.4Endgame8.1

66Consistency148

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	28	9
teleop	60	3
endgame	32	5
foul	0	0
total	120	17

Result

Final score

120 – 17

Prediction missed · off by 54.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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