Qualification · Qualification 20

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

160.53 – 395.11

5%95%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

142 – 548

Prediction correct · off by 85.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 402 ±12.8

3729The Raiders

Season APEX 103.5Event APEX 38.11Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2486CocoNuts

Season APEX 244.2Event APEX 90.56Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5515Blue Power Robotics

Season APEX 54.3Event APEX 31.86Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 95

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 613.4 ±10

5461Victorian Engineered Robotic Nation or V.E.R.N.

Season APEX 68.4Event APEX 37.6Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3006Red Rock Robotics

Season APEX 276.8Event APEX 201.8Rank 3Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

359Hawaiian Kids

Season APEX 268.2Event APEX 155.71Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3729, 2486, 5515

/ 100 compat

Projected

160.5 pts

~0.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 3729, 2486, 5515

Auto

42.1 27%

Teleop

67.1 43%

Endgame

46.9 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5461, 3006, 359

/ 100 compat

Projected

395.1 pts

~2.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 5461, 3006, 359

Auto

62.9 16%

Teleop

241.1 63%

Endgame

78.8 21%

Strengths

· 3006 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.68 · Blue 2.64

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score160.5pts

Blue projected score395.1pts

Red win probability5%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 61%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 11%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -234.6
Score range: 135–421
Upset likelihood: 5%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 690 vs event baseline 145.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

402Season APEX613.4

42.1Auto62.9

67.1Teleop241.1

46.9Endgame78.8

0Consistency90

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	33	78
teleop	73	341
endgame	31	124
foul	5	5
total	142	548

Result

Final score

142 – 548

Prediction correct · off by 85.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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