Qualification · Qualification 2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

92.27 – 154.85

31%69%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

82 – 157

Prediction correct · off by 6.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 313.1 ±13.3

10903The Ionizers

Season APEX 189.9Event APEX 63.85Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8885Socratic Schematics

Season APEX 41.2Event APEX -5.63Rank 35Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 94

1569Haywire Robotics

Season APEX 82Event APEX 34.05Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 94

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 390.2 ±14.1

7497MARAHO

Season APEX 42.4Event APEX 32.35Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 79

8229Balikbayan Bots

Season APEX 188.9Event APEX 107.23Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2726Red Pebble Rebels

Season APEX 158.9Event APEX 15.27Rank 31Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10903, 8885, 1569

/ 100 compat

Projected

92.3 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 10903, 8885, 1569

Auto

18.0 20%

Teleop

52.7 57%

Endgame

21.3 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7497, 8229, 2726

/ 100 compat

Projected

154.9 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 7497, 8229, 2726

Auto

26.9 18%

Teleop

88.0 58%

Endgame

37.8 25%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.21 · Blue 1.98

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score92.3pts

Blue projected score154.9pts

Red win probability31%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 53%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -62.6
Score range: 61–186
Upset likelihood: 31%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 239 vs event baseline 174.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

313.1Season APEX390.2

18Auto26.9

52.7Teleop88

21.3Endgame37.8

18Consistency47

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	10	20
teleop	42	107
endgame	30	30
foul	0	0
total	82	157

Result

Final score

82 – 157

Prediction correct · off by 6.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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