Qualification · Qualification 19

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

82.21 – 124.55

37%63%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

77 – 60

Prediction missed · off by 34.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 258.6 ±15.4

1828BoxerBots

Season APEX 61.4Event APEX 11.58Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 92

9449Yellowjackets

Season APEX 164.3Event APEX 52.22Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5871Chickadees

Season APEX 32.9Event APEX 18.41Rank 17Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 76

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 185.2 ±12.2

9438Leopard Tech

Season APEX 48.6Event APEX 16.72Rank 23Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4585Husky Robotics

Season APEX 59.1Event APEX 69.99Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 94

7334Esquimalt Proton Pulverizers

Season APEX 77.5Event APEX 37.84Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1828, 9449, 5871

/ 100 compat

Projected

82.2 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 1828, 9449, 5871

Auto

4.1 6%

Teleop

41.0 58%

Endgame

25.9 36%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9438, 4585, 7334

/ 100 compat

Projected

124.6 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 9438, 4585, 7334

Auto

33.5 28%

Teleop

76.4 63%

Endgame

10.7 9%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.31 · Blue 1.8

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score82.2pts

Blue projected score124.6pts

Red win probability37%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -42.3
Score range: 55–152
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 137 vs event baseline 149.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

258.6Season APEX185.2

4.1Auto33.5

41Teleop76.4

25.9Endgame10.7

63Consistency99

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	14	25
teleop	36	23
endgame	27	12
foul	0	0
total	77	60

Result

Final score

77 – 60

Prediction missed · off by 34.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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