Qualification · Qualification 17

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

118.44 – 312.87

8%92%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

180 – 573

Prediction correct · off by 160.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 391 ±12.2

6358The Buhlean Operators

Season APEX 85.2Event APEX 41.69Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

74368-Bit Miners

Season APEX 61.6Event APEX -6.77Rank 30Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2486CocoNuts

Season APEX 244.2Event APEX 83.52Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 681.1 ±11.2

3006Red Rock Robotics

Season APEX 276.8Event APEX 133.1Rank 3Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2122Team Tators

Season APEX 289.6Event APEX 143.6Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3216MRT

Season APEX 114.7Event APEX 36.17Rank 10Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6358, 7436, 2486

/ 100 compat

Projected

118.4 pts

~0.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 6358, 7436, 2486

Auto

22.8 19%

Teleop

72.7 61%

Endgame

23.5 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3006, 2122, 3216

/ 100 compat

Projected

312.9 pts

~2.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 3006, 2122, 3216

Auto

58.2 20%

Teleop

180.6 61%

Endgame

57.9 20%

Strengths

· 2122 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.84 · Blue 2.69

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score118.4pts

Blue projected score312.9pts

Red win probability8%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 63%, blue 72%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 11%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -194.4
Score range: 93–338
Upset likelihood: 8%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 753 vs event baseline 140.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

391Season APEX681.1

22.8Auto58.2

72.7Teleop180.6

23.5Endgame57.9

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	37	91
teleop	85	344
endgame	48	118
foul	10	20
total	180	573

Result

Final score

180 – 573

Prediction correct · off by 160.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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