Qualification · Qualification 16

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

88.54 – 63.64

58%42%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

141 – 79

Prediction correct · off by 33.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 352.6 ±12.2

4585Husky Robotics

Season APEX 59.1Event APEX 78.82Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 94

8229Balikbayan Bots

Season APEX 188.9Event APEX 33.49Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1891Bullbots

Season APEX 104.6Event APEX -23.77Rank 33Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 174.2 ±15.4

1828BoxerBots

Season APEX 61.4Event APEX 28.72Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 92

8550The Ram Bots

Season APEX 64.2Event APEX 9.22Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 76

9438Leopard Tech

Season APEX 48.6Event APEX 25.7Rank 23Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4585, 8229, 1891

/ 100 compat

Projected

88.5 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 4585, 8229, 1891

Auto

4.4 5%

Teleop

51.0 61%

Endgame

28.7 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1828, 8550, 9438

/ 100 compat

Projected

63.6 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 1828, 8550, 9438

Auto

16.8 27%

Teleop

56.6 89%

Endgame

-10.1 0%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.72 · Blue 1.34

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score88.5pts

Blue projected score63.6pts

Red win probability58%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 24.9
Score range: 38–115
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 220 vs event baseline 142.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

352.6Season APEX174.2

4.4Auto16.8

51Teleop56.6

28.7Endgame-10.1

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	21	16
teleop	95	43
endgame	25	20
foul	0	0
total	141	79

Result

Final score

141 – 79

Prediction correct · off by 33.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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