Qualification · Qualification 15

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

114.43 – 231.04

19%81%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

131 – 275

Prediction correct · off by 30.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 304.6 ±14.6

7334Esquimalt Proton Pulverizers

Season APEX 77.5Event APEX 30.71Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8551RoNex

Season APEX 68.2Event APEX 39.52Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 80

2726Red Pebble Rebels

Season APEX 158.9Event APEX 44.2Rank 31Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 561.6 ±11.4

3729The Raiders

Season APEX 103.5Event APEX 21.1Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

359Hawaiian Kids

Season APEX 268.2Event APEX 134.24Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10903The Ionizers

Season APEX 189.9Event APEX 75.7Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7334, 8551, 2726

/ 100 compat

Projected

114.4 pts

~1.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 7334, 8551, 2726

Auto

15.2 14%

Teleop

85.2 76%

Endgame

11.7 10%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3729, 359, 10903

/ 100 compat

Projected

231 pts

~2.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 3729, 359, 10903

Auto

36.6 16%

Teleop

117.6 53%

Endgame

69.7 31%

Strengths

· 359 anchors offense
· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.98 · Blue 2.28

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score114.4pts

Blue projected score231pts

Red win probability19%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 60%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -116.6
Score range: 89–256
Upset likelihood: 19%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 406 vs event baseline 137.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

304.6Season APEX561.6

15.2Auto36.6

85.2Teleop117.6

11.7Endgame69.7

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	34	64
teleop	41	137
endgame	51	69
foul	5	5
total	131	275

Result

Final score

131 – 275

Prediction correct · off by 30.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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