Qualification · Qualification 14

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

71.09 – 124.61

34%66%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

128 – 70

Prediction missed · off by 55.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 224.2 ±13.3

5461Victorian Engineered Robotic Nation or V.E.R.N.

Season APEX 68.4Event APEX 34.5Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4183Bit Buckets

Season APEX 87.3Event APEX 19.95Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2594Naskcorpions

Season APEX 68.5Event APEX 16.64Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 311.1 ±12.4

8005Mega MeadowBots

Season APEX 214.9Event APEX 76.77Rank 4Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11025Garage Gang

Season APEX 55Event APEX 45.7Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 94

8885Socratic Schematics

Season APEX 41.2Event APEX 2.14Rank 35Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 94

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5461, 4183, 2594

/ 100 compat

Projected

71.1 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 5461, 4183, 2594

Auto

11.4 17%

Teleop

32.2 49%

Endgame

21.6 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8005, 11025, 8885

/ 100 compat

Projected

124.6 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 8005, 11025, 8885

Auto

26.3 21%

Teleop

92.7 74%

Endgame

6.0 5%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.33 · Blue 1.84

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score71.1pts

Blue projected score124.6pts

Red win probability34%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 47%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -53.5
Score range: 46–150
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 198 vs event baseline 140.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

224.2Season APEX311.1

11.4Auto26.3

32.2Teleop92.7

21.6Endgame6

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	5	16
teleop	80	26
endgame	43	13
foul	0	15
total	128	70

Result

Final score

128 – 70

Prediction missed · off by 55.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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