Qualification · Qualification 13

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

144.38 – 79.55

69%31%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

95 – 96

Prediction missed · off by 32.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 178.7 ±15.1

5515Blue Power Robotics

Season APEX 54.3Event APEX 48.55Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 95

1569Haywire Robotics

Season APEX 82Event APEX 13.1Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 94

7497MARAHO

Season APEX 42.4Event APEX 82.73Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 79

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 378.3 ±14.4

9726Notus Pirates

Season APEX 161.1Event APEX 22Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8756Magic Valley Logic Control

Season APEX 52.9Event APEX 8.06Rank 20Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 76

9449Yellowjackets

Season APEX 164.3Event APEX 49.49Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5515, 1569, 7497

/ 100 compat

Projected

144.4 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 5515, 1569, 7497

Auto

36.5 24%

Teleop

90.2 59%

Endgame

27.0 18%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9726, 8756, 9449

/ 100 compat

Projected

79.6 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 9726, 8756, 9449

Auto

3.0 4%

Teleop

48.5 70%

Endgame

17.4 25%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.96 · Blue 1.14

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score144.4pts

Blue projected score79.6pts

Red win probability69%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 53%, blue 47%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 64.8
Score range: 54–170
Upset likelihood: 31%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 191 vs event baseline 144.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

178.7Season APEX378.3

36.5Auto3

90.2Teleop48.5

27Endgame17.4

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	21	14
teleop	57	42
endgame	17	25
foul	0	15
total	95	96

Result

Final score

95 – 96

Prediction missed · off by 32.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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