Qualification · Qualification 12

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

154.15 – 78.08

72%28%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

167 – 13

Prediction correct · off by 39 points

Limited current-season data (11 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 206.6 ±16.2

8551RoNex

Season APEX 68.2Event APEX 33.8Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 80

3216MRT

Season APEX 114.7Event APEX 41.41Rank 10Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2130Alpha+

Season APEX 23.7Event APEX 78.94Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 79

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 201.2 ±15.3

1566AMMOKNIGHTS

Season APEX 63.7Event APEX 28.34Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 94

1891Bullbots

Season APEX 104.6Event APEX -6.82Rank 33Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5871Chickadees

Season APEX 32.9Event APEX 56.56Rank 17Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 76

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8551, 3216, 2130

/ 100 compat

Projected

154.1 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 8551, 3216, 2130

Auto

20.2 13%

Teleop

105.6 66%

Endgame

33.8 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1566, 1891, 5871

/ 100 compat

Projected

78.1 pts

~1.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 1566, 1891, 5871

Auto

22.3 30%

Teleop

40.8 55%

Endgame

10.7 14%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.05 · Blue 1.02

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score154.1pts

Blue projected score78.1pts

Red win probability72%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 42%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 76.1
Score range: 51–181
Upset likelihood: 28%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 180 vs event baseline 149.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

206.6Season APEX201.2

20.2Auto22.3

105.6Teleop40.8

33.8Endgame10.7

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	35	11
teleop	98	2
endgame	34	0
foul	0	0
total	167	13

Result

Final score

167 – 13

Prediction correct · off by 39 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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