Qualification · Qualification 10

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

91.51 – 69.56

57%43%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

58 – 70

Prediction missed · off by 17 points

Limited current-season data (9 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 158.2 ±12.2

9438Leopard Tech

Season APEX 48.6Event APEX 30.33Rank 23Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5461Victorian Engineered Robotic Nation or V.E.R.N.

Season APEX 68.4Event APEX 53.71Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8885Socratic Schematics

Season APEX 41.2Event APEX 7.47Rank 35Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 94

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 220.1 ±15.3

1569Haywire Robotics

Season APEX 82Event APEX 7.47Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 94

6358The Buhlean Operators

Season APEX 85.2Event APEX 40.09Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8756Magic Valley Logic Control

Season APEX 52.9Event APEX 22Rank 20Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 76

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9438, 5461, 8885

/ 100 compat

Projected

91.5 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 9438, 5461, 8885

Auto

19.7 21%

Teleop

61.4 65%

Endgame

13.2 14%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1569, 6358, 8756

/ 100 compat

Projected

69.6 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 1569, 6358, 8756

Auto

6.0 8%

Teleop

58.0 81%

Endgame

7.6 11%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.58 · Blue 1.46

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score91.5pts

Blue projected score69.6pts

Red win probability57%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 39%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 22
Score range: 42–120
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 128 vs event baseline 153.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

158.2Season APEX220.1

19.7Auto6

61.4Teleop58

13.2Endgame7.6

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	18	12
teleop	37	36
endgame	3	22
foul	0	0
total	58	70

Result

Final score

58 – 70

Prediction missed · off by 17 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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