Final · Finals 2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

457.46 – 256.89

92%8%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

291 – 246

Prediction correct · off by 88.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 661.3 ±10.2

359Hawaiian Kids

Season APEX 268.2Event APEX 215.3Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3729The Raiders

Season APEX 103.5Event APEX 22.23Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2122Team Tators

Season APEX 289.6Event APEX 219.93Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 508.4 ±10.5

8229Balikbayan Bots

Season APEX 188.9Event APEX 107.26Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1891Bullbots

Season APEX 104.6Event APEX 27.44Rank 33Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8005Mega MeadowBots

Season APEX 214.9Event APEX 122.19Rank 4Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 359, 3729, 2122

/ 100 compat

Projected

457.5 pts

~2.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 359, 3729, 2122

Auto

109.9 25%

Teleop

245.5 55%

Endgame

92.7 21%

Strengths

· 2122 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8229, 1891, 8005

/ 100 compat

Projected

256.9 pts

~0.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 8229, 1891, 8005

Auto

51.8 20%

Teleop

145.2 57%

Endgame

56.9 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.54 · Blue 0.72

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score457.5pts

Blue projected score256.9pts

Red win probability92%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 9%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 200.6
Score range: 226–488
Upset likelihood: 8%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 537 vs event baseline 172.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

661.3Season APEX508.4

109.9Auto51.8

245.5Teleop145.2

92.7Endgame56.9

0Consistency15

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	100	64
teleop	155	101
endgame	26	81
foul	10	0
total	291	246

Result

Final score

291 – 246

Prediction correct · off by 88.7 pts

Match videos

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