Final · Finals 1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

454.88 – 252.76

93%7%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

476 – 291

Prediction correct · off by 29.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 661.3 ±10.2

359Hawaiian Kids

Season APEX 268.2Event APEX 214.38Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3729The Raiders

Season APEX 103.5Event APEX 21.53Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2122Team Tators

Season APEX 289.6Event APEX 218.97Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 508.4 ±10.5

8229Balikbayan Bots

Season APEX 188.9Event APEX 105.93Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1891Bullbots

Season APEX 104.6Event APEX 26.02Rank 33Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8005Mega MeadowBots

Season APEX 214.9Event APEX 120.81Rank 4Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 359, 3729, 2122

/ 100 compat

Projected

454.9 pts

~2.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 359, 3729, 2122

Auto

108.6 24%

Teleop

249.3 56%

Endgame

89.2 20%

Strengths

· 2122 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8229, 1891, 8005

/ 100 compat

Projected

252.8 pts

~0.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 8229, 1891, 8005

Auto

50.6 20%

Teleop

147.4 59%

Endgame

51.3 21%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.55 · Blue 0.72

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score454.9pts

Blue projected score252.8pts

Red win probability93%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 9%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 202.1
Score range: 222–486
Upset likelihood: 7%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 767 vs event baseline 170.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

661.3Season APEX508.4

108.6Auto50.6

249.3Teleop147.4

89.2Endgame51.3

0Consistency13

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	119	61
teleop	219	127
endgame	118	103
foul	20	0
total	476	291

Result

Final score

476 – 291

Prediction correct · off by 29.7 pts

Match videos

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