Playoff · Playoff Match 6 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

227.05 – 338.25

20%80%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

165 – 272

Prediction correct · off by 64.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 341.8 ±13.9

967Iron Lions

Season APEX 122.2Event APEX 77.6Rank 12Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 95

7848WI-FIghterz

Season APEX 115.9Event APEX 93.01Rank 16Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3267Mariner Robotics

Season APEX 103.7Event APEX 56.44Rank 15Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 95

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 549.5 ±13.3

5809The Jesubots 5809

Season APEX 221.6Event APEX 159.94Rank 4Record 7-1-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1997STAGROBOTICS

Season APEX 80.7Event APEX 29.7Rank 25Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

167Children of the Corn

Season APEX 247.2Event APEX 148.61Rank 3Record 7-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 967, 7848, 3267

/ 100 compat

Projected

227.1 pts

~1.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 967, 7848, 3267

Auto

26.1 12%

Teleop

129.4 60%

Endgame

61.7 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5809, 1997, 167

/ 100 compat

Projected

338.3 pts

~2.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 5809, 1997, 167

Auto

57.7 17%

Teleop

206.1 62%

Endgame

67.7 20%

Strengths

· 5809 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1 · Blue 2.23

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score227.1pts

Blue projected score338.3pts

Red win probability20%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -111.2
Score range: 196–369
Upset likelihood: 20%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 437 vs event baseline 169.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

341.8Season APEX549.5

26.1Auto57.7

129.4Teleop206.1

61.7Endgame67.7

53Consistency23

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	33	74
teleop	92	152
endgame	35	21
foul	5	25
total	165	272

Result

Final score

165 – 272

Prediction correct · off by 64.2 pts

Match videos

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