Playoff · Playoff Match 5 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

97.27 – 262.91

11%89%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

102 – 247

Prediction correct · off by 10.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 273.6 ±17

525Swartdogs

Season APEX 69.7Event APEX 32.66Rank 33Record 3-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5837Unity4Tech

Season APEX 107Event APEX 38.98Rank 20Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 89

11219North Union Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 96.9Event APEX 25.63Rank 13Record 5-3-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 411.8 ±14.9

9092Tower Robotics

Season APEX 100.5Event APEX 38.92Rank 17Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 77

6419Kernel Chaos

Season APEX 165.6Event APEX 107.83Rank 10Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6147Tonkabots

Season APEX 145.7Event APEX 116.16Rank 7Record 6-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 525, 5837, 11219

/ 100 compat

Projected

97.3 pts

~0.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 525, 5837, 11219

Auto

5.9 7%

Teleop

58.8 68%

Endgame

21.8 25%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9092, 6419, 6147

/ 100 compat

Projected

262.9 pts

~2.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 9092, 6419, 6147

Auto

35.3 14%

Teleop

131.2 52%

Endgame

86.4 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.71 · Blue 2.37

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score97.3pts

Blue projected score262.9pts

Red win probability11%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 8%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -165.6
Score range: 66–294
Upset likelihood: 11%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 349 vs event baseline 169.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

273.6Season APEX411.8

5.9Auto35.3

58.8Teleop131.2

21.8Endgame86.4

17Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	10	85
teleop	41	85
endgame	36	77
foul	15	0
total	102	247

Result

Final score

102 – 247

Prediction correct · off by 10.3 pts

Match videos

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