Playoff · Playoff Match 4 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

381.91 – 241.99

85%15%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

212 – 279

Prediction missed · off by 103.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 549.5 ±13.3

5809The Jesubots 5809

Season APEX 221.6Event APEX 174.88Rank 4Record 7-1-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1997STAGROBOTICS

Season APEX 80.7Event APEX 43.03Rank 25Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

167Children of the Corn

Season APEX 247.2Event APEX 164Rank 3Record 7-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 469.7 ±15.6

10476Thunderbots

Provisional

Season APEX 113.8Event APEX 10.55Rank 19Record 5-3-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

2654Polar Rams

Season APEX 122.8Event APEX 98.32Rank 11Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 94

1108Panther Robotics

Season APEX 233.1Event APEX 133.12Rank 8Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5809, 1997, 167

/ 100 compat

Projected

381.9 pts

~2.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 5809, 1997, 167

Auto

47.5 13%

Teleop

239.1 64%

Endgame

85.7 23%

Strengths

· 5809 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10476, 2654, 1108

/ 100 compat

Projected

242 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 10476, 2654, 1108

Auto

37.6 16%

Teleop

142.9 60%

Endgame

57.4 24%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.33 · Blue 0.92

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score381.9pts

Blue projected score242pts

Red win probability85%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 139.9
Score range: 212–412
Upset likelihood: 15%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 491 vs event baseline 168.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

549.5Season APEX469.7

47.5Auto37.6

239.1Teleop142.9

85.7Endgame57.4

26Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	90	53
teleop	107	124
endgame	15	57
foul	0	45
total	212	279

Result

Final score

212 – 279

Prediction missed · off by 103.5 pts

Match videos

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