Playoff · Playoff Match 3 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

359.82 – 248.02

80%20%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

487 – 194

Prediction correct · off by 90.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 661.6 ±11

5557BB-R8ERS

Season APEX 144.3Event APEX 34.63Rank 41Record 3-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3928Team Neutrino

Season APEX 227.5Event APEX 149.62Rank 9Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4646Wildcard Robotics

Season APEX 289.8Event APEX 175.57Rank 2Record 8-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 341.8 ±13.9

7848WI-FIghterz

Season APEX 115.9Event APEX 99.21Rank 16Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

967Iron Lions

Season APEX 122.2Event APEX 85.5Rank 12Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 95

3267Mariner Robotics

Season APEX 103.7Event APEX 63.31Rank 15Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 95

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5557, 3928, 4646

/ 100 compat

Projected

359.8 pts

~2.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 5557, 3928, 4646

Auto

67.1 19%

Teleop

190.7 54%

Endgame

92.2 26%

Strengths

· 4646 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7848, 967, 3267

/ 100 compat

Projected

248 pts

~1.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 7848, 967, 3267

Auto

34.8 15%

Teleop

145.1 61%

Endgame

58.2 24%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.11 · Blue 1

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score359.8pts

Blue projected score248pts

Red win probability80%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 43%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 111.8
Score range: 218–390
Upset likelihood: 20%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 681 vs event baseline 166.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

661.6Season APEX341.8

67.1Auto34.8

190.7Teleop145.1

92.2Endgame58.2

7Consistency40

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	121	14
teleop	243	91
endgame	118	74
foul	5	15
total	487	194

Result

Final score

487 – 194

Prediction correct · off by 90.6 pts

Match videos

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