Playoff · Playoff Match 2 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

207.39 – 269.99

31%69%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

265 – 242

Prediction missed · off by 42.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 481.4 ±11.7

59RamTech

Season APEX 236.3Event APEX 73.17Rank 6Record 7-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7257Semiconductors

Season APEX 179.4Event APEX 121.85Rank 18Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3298ArrowBots

Season APEX 65.7Event APEX 12.37Rank 28Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 94

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 411.8 ±14.9

6147Tonkabots

Season APEX 145.7Event APEX 115.4Rank 7Record 6-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6419Kernel Chaos

Season APEX 165.6Event APEX 111.05Rank 10Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9092Tower Robotics

Season APEX 100.5Event APEX 43.54Rank 17Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 77

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 59, 7257, 3298

/ 100 compat

Projected

207.4 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 59, 7257, 3298

Auto

48.0 24%

Teleop

106.7 53%

Endgame

45.1 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6147, 6419, 9092

/ 100 compat

Projected

270 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 6147, 6419, 9092

Auto

31.9 12%

Teleop

147.8 58%

Endgame

76.6 30%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.2 · Blue 1.96

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score207.4pts

Blue projected score270pts

Red win probability31%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 8%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -62.6
Score range: 177–300
Upset likelihood: 31%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 507 vs event baseline 165.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

481.4Season APEX411.8

48Auto31.9

106.7Teleop147.8

45.1Endgame76.6

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	50	44
teleop	164	88
endgame	46	105
foul	5	5
total	265	242

Result

Final score

265 – 242

Prediction missed · off by 42.8 pts

Match videos

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