Playoff · Playoff Match 13 R5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

425.99 – 278.7

86%14%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

400 – 281

Prediction correct · off by 14.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 608.3 ±13.9

10439Wild Wires

Season APEX 96.8Event APEX 9.78Rank 14Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 76

2847The MegaHertz

Season APEX 275.3Event APEX 224.32Rank 1Record 8-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4728ROCORI Robotics

Season APEX 236.2Event APEX 191.89Rank 5Record 7-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 411.8 ±14.9

9092Tower Robotics

Season APEX 100.5Event APEX 42.57Rank 17Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 77

6419Kernel Chaos

Season APEX 165.6Event APEX 113.38Rank 10Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6147Tonkabots

Season APEX 145.7Event APEX 122.75Rank 7Record 6-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10439, 2847, 4728

/ 100 compat

Projected

426 pts

~2.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 10439, 2847, 4728

Auto

56.1 14%

Teleop

263.7 64%

Endgame

94.2 23%

Strengths

· 2847 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9092, 6419, 6147

/ 100 compat

Projected

278.7 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 9092, 6419, 6147

Auto

55.0 20%

Teleop

135.5 50%

Endgame

81.6 30%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.31 · Blue 0.87

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score426pts

Blue projected score278.7pts

Red win probability86%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 8%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 147.3
Score range: 246–459
Upset likelihood: 14%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 681 vs event baseline 182.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

608.3Season APEX411.8

56.1Auto55

263.7Teleop135.5

94.2Endgame81.6

4Consistency18

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	58	72
teleop	240	121
endgame	87	63
foul	15	25
total	400	281

Result

Final score

400 – 281

Prediction correct · off by 14.1 pts

Match videos

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