Playoff · Playoff Match 12 R4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

263.86 – 324.33

32%68%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

352 – 192

Prediction missed · off by 110.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 411.8 ±14.9

9092Tower Robotics

Season APEX 100.5Event APEX 37.64Rank 17Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 77

6419Kernel Chaos

Season APEX 165.6Event APEX 108.94Rank 10Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6147Tonkabots

Season APEX 145.7Event APEX 117.28Rank 7Record 6-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 549.5 ±13.3

5809The Jesubots 5809

Season APEX 221.6Event APEX 155.73Rank 4Record 7-1-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1997STAGROBOTICS

Season APEX 80.7Event APEX 25.11Rank 25Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

167Children of the Corn

Season APEX 247.2Event APEX 143.49Rank 3Record 7-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9092, 6419, 6147

/ 100 compat

Projected

263.9 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 9092, 6419, 6147

Auto

52.6 20%

Teleop

124.9 48%

Endgame

80.4 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5809, 1997, 167

/ 100 compat

Projected

324.3 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 5809, 1997, 167

Auto

54.6 18%

Teleop

194.8 63%

Endgame

62.1 20%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.23 · Blue 1.99

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score263.9pts

Blue projected score324.3pts

Red win probability32%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 8%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -60.5
Score range: 231–357
Upset likelihood: 32%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 544 vs event baseline 180.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

411.8Season APEX549.5

52.6Auto54.6

124.9Teleop194.8

80.4Endgame62.1

21Consistency43

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	67	33
teleop	188	118
endgame	87	36
foul	10	5
total	352	192

Result

Final score

352 – 192

Prediction missed · off by 110.2 pts

Match videos

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