Playoff · Playoff Match 10 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

246.37 – 259.34

46%54%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

255 – 288

Prediction correct · off by 18.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 469.7 ±15.6

10476Thunderbots

Provisional

Season APEX 113.8Event APEX 14.52Rank 19Record 5-3-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

2654Polar Rams

Season APEX 122.8Event APEX 98.12Rank 11Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 94

1108Panther Robotics

Season APEX 233.1Event APEX 133.73Rank 8Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 411.8 ±14.9

9092Tower Robotics

Season APEX 100.5Event APEX 37.27Rank 17Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 77

6419Kernel Chaos

Season APEX 165.6Event APEX 107.02Rank 10Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6147Tonkabots

Season APEX 145.7Event APEX 115.05Rank 7Record 6-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10476, 2654, 1108

/ 100 compat

Projected

246.4 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 10476, 2654, 1108

Auto

39.4 17%

Teleop

131.1 56%

Endgame

62.6 27%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9092, 6419, 6147

/ 100 compat

Projected

259.3 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 9092, 6419, 6147

Auto

48.8 19%

Teleop

120.9 48%

Endgame

82.0 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.54 · Blue 1.67

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score246.4pts

Blue projected score259.3pts

Red win probability46%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 8%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -13
Score range: 214–291
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 543 vs event baseline 175.7.

← Previous Next →

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

469.7Season APEX411.8

39.4Auto48.8

131.1Teleop120.9

62.6Endgame82

0Consistency9

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	35	73
teleop	128	134
endgame	62	76
foul	30	5
total	255	288

Result

Final score

255 – 288

Prediction correct · off by 18.6 pts

Match videos

Watch right here, no need to leave the page.