Qualification · Qualification 9

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

84.06 – 144.33

32%68%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

32 – 167

Prediction correct · off by 37.4 points

Limited current-season data (8 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 224.2 ±14.5

9570Valiant

Season APEX 92.2Event APEX -Rank 29Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 94

2227Tigers

Season APEX 55Event APEX -Rank 47Record 2-6-0Status establishedConfidence 94

5275T.I.M.E.-Bots

Season APEX 77Event APEX -Rank 44Record 2-6-0Status establishedConfidence 91

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 299.6 ±19.4

967Iron Lions

Season APEX 122.2Event APEX 88.29Rank 12Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 95

10476Thunderbots

Provisional

Season APEX 113.8Event APEX -Rank 19Record 5-3-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

9061Mechanical Mutts

Provisional

Season APEX 63.6Event APEX -Rank 39Record 3-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9570, 2227, 5275

/ 100 compat

Projected

84.1 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 9570, 2227, 5275

Auto

25.2 30%

Teleop

42.0 50%

Endgame

16.8 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 967, 10476, 9061

/ 100 compat

Projected

144.3 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 967, 10476, 9061

Auto

32.2 23%

Teleop

95.5 67%

Endgame

13.8 10%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.08 · Blue 1.89

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score84.1pts

Blue projected score144.3pts

Red win probability32%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 40%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -60.3
Score range: 54–174
Upset likelihood: 32%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 199 vs event baseline 168.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

224.2Season APEX299.6

-Auto15.4

-Teleop67.4

-Endgame2.6

-Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	9	10
teleop	23	126
endgame	0	31
foul	0	0
total	32	167

Result

Final score

32 – 167

Prediction correct · off by 37.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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