Qualification · Qualification 71
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Blue alliance
Predicted score
32.32 – 394.51
2%98%
Actual result
Winner
Blue alliance
Final score
34 – 477
Prediction correct · off by 42.1 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 226.9 ±18.2
9061Mechanical Mutts
Provisional
Season APEX 63.6Event APEX -11.14Rank 39Record 3-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 70
Season APEX 77.2Event APEX 31.09Rank 32Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 88
Season APEX 86.1Event APEX 12.37Rank 30Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 91
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 744.7 ±10.4
Season APEX 233.1Event APEX 125.1Rank 8Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 275.3Event APEX 203.73Rank 1Record 8-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 236.3Event APEX 65.68Rank 6Record 7-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 9061, 5141, 6420
8
/ 100 compatProjected
32.3 pts
~0.5 RP (regional)
Teams: 9061, 5141, 6420
Auto
16.0 58%
Teleop
-0.3 0%
Endgame
12.0 43%
Strengths
- · Strong autonomous coverage
- · Reliable endgame stack
Weaknesses
- · Below-average combined firepower
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 39%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 1108, 2847, 59
79
/ 100 compatProjected
394.5 pts
~2.7 RP (regional)
Teams: 1108, 2847, 59
Auto
63.1 16%
Teleop
247.1 63%
Endgame
80.1 21%
Strengths
- · 2847 anchors offense
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 39%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.47 · Blue 2.69
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setRegional
Red projected score32.3pts
Blue projected score394.5pts
Red win probability2%
Event bonus sample174alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 39%, blue 59%
Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 12%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- -362.2
- Score range
- 3–424
- Upset likelihood
- 2%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
226.9Season APEX744.7
16Auto63.1
-0.3Teleop247.1
12Endgame80.1
27Consistency26
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 18 | 103 |
| teleop | 9 | 293 |
| endgame | 7 | 76 |
| foul | 0 | 5 |
| total | 34 | 477 |
Result
Final score
34 – 477
Prediction correct · off by 42.1 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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