Qualification · Qualification 69

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

232.22 – 90.44

85%15%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

305 – 138

Prediction correct · off by 60.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 414.1 ±17.2

5809The Jesubots 5809

Season APEX 221.6Event APEX 169.41Rank 4Record 7-1-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1997STAGROBOTICS

Season APEX 80.7Event APEX 32.41Rank 25Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11210MACHS Raiders 1

Provisional

Season APEX 111.8Event APEX 30.4Rank 21Record 4-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 251.1 ±20

3267Mariner Robotics

Season APEX 103.7Event APEX 58.25Rank 15Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 95

11241PRAIRIE

Provisional

Season APEX 42.5Event APEX 17.66Rank 51Record 1-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

9543Cyclone Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 104.9Event APEX 14.53Rank 27Record 4-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5809, 1997, 11210

/ 100 compat

Projected

232.2 pts

~2.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 5809, 1997, 11210

Auto

35.7 16%

Teleop

148.9 67%

Endgame

37.6 17%

Strengths

· 5809 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3267, 11241, 9543

/ 100 compat

Projected

90.4 pts

~0.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 3267, 11241, 9543

Auto

35.7 43%

Teleop

40.0 49%

Endgame

6.7 8%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.32 · Blue 0.84

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score232.2pts

Blue projected score90.4pts

Red win probability85%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 141.8
Score range: 61–261
Upset likelihood: 15%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 443 vs event baseline 162.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

414.1Season APEX251.1

35.7Auto35.7

148.9Teleop40

37.6Endgame6.7

0Consistency5

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	51	47
teleop	200	50
endgame	54	36
foul	0	5
total	305	138

Result

Final score

305 – 138

Prediction correct · off by 60.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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