Qualification · Qualification 68

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

195.93 – 67.78

83%17%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

253 – 78

Prediction correct · off by 33.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 338 ±16.4

8766The Black Machine

Provisional

Season APEX 70.1Event APEX 2.22Rank 49Record 2-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

6147Tonkabots

Season APEX 145.7Event APEX 113.97Rank 7Record 6-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

967Iron Lions

Season APEX 122.2Event APEX 79.74Rank 12Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 95

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 232.3 ±18.2

7038Totino-Grace Pizza Pi's

Season APEX 68.2Event APEX -1.72Rank 53Record 0-8-0Status establishedConfidence 86

6455The Coded Collective

Provisional

Season APEX 72.2Event APEX 39.24Rank 43Record 2-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

5041CyBears

Season APEX 91.9Event APEX 30.26Rank 45Record 2-6-0Status establishedConfidence 91

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8766, 6147, 967

/ 100 compat

Projected

195.9 pts

~2.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 8766, 6147, 967

Auto

33.4 17%

Teleop

136.5 68%

Endgame

29.6 15%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7038, 6455, 5041

/ 100 compat

Projected

67.8 pts

~0.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 7038, 6455, 5041

Auto

16.3 24%

Teleop

33.7 51%

Endgame

16.7 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.21 · Blue 0.76

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score195.9pts

Blue projected score67.8pts

Red win probability83%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 39%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 128.2
Score range: 39–225
Upset likelihood: 17%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 331 vs event baseline 162.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

338Season APEX232.3

33.4Auto16.3

136.5Teleop33.7

29.6Endgame16.7

46Consistency43

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	37	27
teleop	136	34
endgame	80	17
foul	0	0
total	253	78

Result

Final score

253 – 78

Prediction correct · off by 33.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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