Qualification · Qualification 67

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

319.09 – 65.13

96%4%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

373 – 49

Prediction correct · off by 35 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 539 ±12.9

8770FireBolts

Season APEX 64.3Event APEX 10.46Rank 35Record 3-5-0Status establishedConfidence 89

167Children of the Corn

Season APEX 247.2Event APEX 163.11Rank 3Record 7-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3928Team Neutrino

Season APEX 227.5Event APEX 145.52Rank 9Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 241.3 ±16.3

10439Wild Wires

Season APEX 96.8Event APEX 12.97Rank 14Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 76

3055Furious George

Season APEX 89.5Event APEX 45.03Rank 34Record 3-5-0Status establishedConfidence 89

2227Tigers

Season APEX 55Event APEX 7.13Rank 47Record 2-6-0Status establishedConfidence 94

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8770, 167, 3928

/ 100 compat

Projected

319.1 pts

~2.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 8770, 167, 3928

Auto

57.8 18%

Teleop

185.6 57%

Endgame

80.5 25%

Strengths

· 167 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10439, 3055, 2227

/ 100 compat

Projected

65.1 pts

~0.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 10439, 3055, 2227

Auto

1.4 3%

Teleop

34.2 70%

Endgame

13.3 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.57 · Blue 0.54

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score319.1pts

Blue projected score65.1pts

Red win probability96%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 40%

Supercharged bonusred 12%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 254
Score range: 36–348
Upset likelihood: 4%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 422 vs event baseline 161.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

539Season APEX241.3

57.8Auto1.4

185.6Teleop34.2

80.5Endgame13.3

26Consistency62

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	38	16
teleop	237	14
endgame	93	14
foul	5	5
total	373	49

Result

Final score

373 – 49

Prediction correct · off by 35 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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