Qualification · Qualification 66

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

249.51 – 348.86

23%77%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

220 – 343

Prediction correct · off by 17.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 410.2 ±16.4

11312Royal Flush

Provisional

Season APEX 104.3Event APEX 36.11Rank 22Record 5-3-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

525Swartdogs

Season APEX 69.7Event APEX 36.09Rank 33Record 3-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4728ROCORI Robotics

Season APEX 236.2Event APEX 177.31Rank 5Record 7-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 581.4 ±11.7

4646Wildcard Robotics

Season APEX 289.8Event APEX 181.79Rank 2Record 8-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5442Mechanical Monarchy

Season APEX 112.2Event APEX 44.09Rank 26Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 95

7257Semiconductors

Season APEX 179.4Event APEX 122.98Rank 18Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11312, 525, 4728

/ 100 compat

Projected

249.5 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 11312, 525, 4728

Auto

34.8 14%

Teleop

153.6 61%

Endgame

62.2 25%

Strengths

· 4728 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4646, 5442, 7257

/ 100 compat

Projected

348.9 pts

~2.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 4646, 5442, 7257

Auto

69.4 20%

Teleop

195.4 57%

Endgame

75.9 22%

Strengths

· 4646 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.95 · Blue 2.17

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score249.5pts

Blue projected score348.9pts

Red win probability23%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -99.4
Score range: 221–378
Upset likelihood: 23%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 563 vs event baseline 159.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

410.2Season APEX581.4

34.8Auto69.4

153.6Teleop195.4

62.2Endgame75.9

33Consistency6

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	42	75
teleop	91	166
endgame	82	92
foul	5	10
total	220	343

Result

Final score

220 – 343

Prediction correct · off by 17.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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