Qualification · Qualification 63

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

43.15 – 32.34

53%47%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

129 – 62

Prediction correct · off by 57.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 274.3 ±17.5

6420Fire Island Robotics

Season APEX 86.1Event APEX -1.84Rank 30Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 91

648QC ELITE Flaming Squirrels

Season APEX 91.3Event APEX 29.14Rank 37Record 3-5-0Status establishedConfidence 91

11219North Union Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 96.9Event APEX 15.85Rank 13Record 5-3-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 279.4 ±17.3

8822Lc3 Thunderbirds

Provisional

Season APEX 85.4Event APEX 30.49Rank 40Record 3-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

5576Team Terminator

Season APEX 49.7Event APEX -28.78Rank 50Record 2-6-0Status establishedConfidence 89

5557BB-R8ERS

Season APEX 144.3Event APEX 30.63Rank 41Record 3-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6420, 648, 11219

/ 100 compat

Projected

43.2 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 6420, 648, 11219

Auto

21.1 62%

Teleop

6.4 19%

Endgame

6.3 19%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8822, 5576, 5557

/ 100 compat

Projected

32.3 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 8822, 5576, 5557

Auto

28.2 75%

Teleop

-15.5 0%

Endgame

25.1 66%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.58 · Blue 1.3

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score43.2pts

Blue projected score32.3pts

Red win probability53%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 47%, blue 33%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 10.8
Score range: 3–72
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 191 vs event baseline 161.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

274.3Season APEX279.4

21.1Auto28.2

6.4Teleop-15.5

6.3Endgame25.1

7Consistency19

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	19	13
teleop	21	26
endgame	44	18
foul	45	5
total	129	62

Result

Final score

129 – 62

Prediction correct · off by 57.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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