Qualification · Qualification 61

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

207.32 – 275.3

30%70%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

139 – 83

Prediction missed · off by 130.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 301.4 ±16.4

1997STAGROBOTICS

Season APEX 80.7Event APEX 47.17Rank 25Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6805Quack Attack

Provisional

Season APEX 75Event APEX 33.21Rank 38Record 3-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

6147Tonkabots

Season APEX 145.7Event APEX 126.94Rank 7Record 6-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 470.7 ±11.7

2227Tigers

Season APEX 55Event APEX 30.33Rank 47Record 2-6-0Status establishedConfidence 94

59RamTech

Season APEX 236.3Event APEX 91.81Rank 6Record 7-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7257Semiconductors

Season APEX 179.4Event APEX 153.16Rank 18Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1997, 6805, 6147

/ 100 compat

Projected

207.3 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 1997, 6805, 6147

Auto

26.3 13%

Teleop

136.2 65%

Endgame

47.8 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2227, 59, 7257

/ 100 compat

Projected

275.3 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 2227, 59, 7257

Auto

44.9 17%

Teleop

160.0 59%

Endgame

64.4 24%

Strengths

· 7257 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.15 · Blue 1.94

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score207.3pts

Blue projected score275.3pts

Red win probability30%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -68
Score range: 178–304
Upset likelihood: 30%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 222 vs event baseline 160.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

301.4Season APEX470.7

26.3Auto44.9

136.2Teleop160

47.8Endgame64.4

0Consistency98

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	18	30
teleop	68	14
endgame	48	4
foul	5	35
total	139	83

Result

Final score

139 – 83

Prediction missed · off by 130.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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