Qualification · Qualification 6

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

120.78 – 442.83

2%98%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

128 – 390

Prediction correct · off by 30 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 231.3 ±17.2

3267Mariner Robotics

Season APEX 103.7Event APEX 50.07Rank 15Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 95

8737Rocket Rampage#8737

Provisional

Season APEX 57.9Event APEX 37.32Rank 42Record 3-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

525Swartdogs

Season APEX 69.7Event APEX 33.39Rank 33Record 3-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 629.1 ±11

167Children of the Corn

Season APEX 247.2Event APEX 139.94Rank 3Record 7-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4728ROCORI Robotics

Season APEX 236.2Event APEX 180.56Rank 5Record 7-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6147Tonkabots

Season APEX 145.7Event APEX 122.33Rank 7Record 6-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3267, 8737, 525

/ 100 compat

Projected

120.8 pts

~0.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 3267, 8737, 525

Auto

29.1 27%

Teleop

45.1 42%

Endgame

33.2 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 167, 4728, 6147

/ 100 compat

Projected

442.8 pts

~2.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 167, 4728, 6147

Auto

67.4 15%

Teleop

255.9 58%

Endgame

116.5 26%

Strengths

· 4728 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.54 · Blue 2.65

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score120.8pts

Blue projected score442.8pts

Red win probability2%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 10%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -322
Score range: 87–477
Upset likelihood: 2%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 518 vs event baseline 187.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

231.3Season APEX629.1

29.1Auto67.4

45.1Teleop255.9

33.2Endgame116.5

35Consistency64

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	30	47
teleop	57	280
endgame	41	63
foul	0	0
total	128	390

Result

Final score

128 – 390

Prediction correct · off by 30 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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