Qualification · Qualification 59

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

75.96 – 133.88

33%67%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

28 – 102

Prediction correct · off by 39.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 202.9 ±17.7

11241PRAIRIE

Provisional

Season APEX 42.5Event APEX 27.47Rank 51Record 1-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

9570Valiant

Season APEX 92.2Event APEX 44.64Rank 29Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 94

7038Totino-Grace Pizza Pi's

Season APEX 68.2Event APEX 3.85Rank 53Record 0-8-0Status establishedConfidence 86

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 291 ±20.5

4260BEAR (Blue Earth Area Robotics)

Provisional

Season APEX 79.7Event APEX 35.67Rank 36Record 3-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

11312Royal Flush

Provisional

Season APEX 104.3Event APEX 47.65Rank 22Record 5-3-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

5837Unity4Tech

Season APEX 107Event APEX 50.56Rank 20Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 89

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11241, 9570, 7038

/ 100 compat

Projected

76 pts

~1.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 11241, 9570, 7038

Auto

10.9 16%

Teleop

26.0 39%

Endgame

30.6 45%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4260, 11312, 5837

/ 100 compat

Projected

133.9 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 4260, 11312, 5837

Auto

20.2 17%

Teleop

71.8 60%

Endgame

28.4 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.04 · Blue 1.81

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score76pts

Blue projected score133.9pts

Red win probability33%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 34%, blue 41%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -57.9
Score range: 47–163
Upset likelihood: 33%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 130 vs event baseline 159.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

202.9Season APEX291

10.9Auto20.2

26Teleop71.8

30.6Endgame28.4

43Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	1	25
teleop	15	58
endgame	12	14
foul	0	5
total	28	102

Result

Final score

28 – 102

Prediction correct · off by 39.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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