Qualification · Qualification 58

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

135.15 – 138.88

49%51%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

69 – 311

Prediction correct · off by 119.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 284.7 ±14.5

5442Mechanical Monarchy

Season APEX 112.2Event APEX 53.55Rank 26Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 95

5576Team Terminator

Season APEX 49.7Event APEX -23.67Rank 50Record 2-6-0Status establishedConfidence 89

2654Polar Rams

Season APEX 122.8Event APEX 105.27Rank 11Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 94

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 401.4 ±14.5

5141GRIFFINITE

Season APEX 77.2Event APEX 8.41Rank 32Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 88

5275T.I.M.E.-Bots

Season APEX 77Event APEX -3.08Rank 44Record 2-6-0Status establishedConfidence 91

167Children of the Corn

Season APEX 247.2Event APEX 133.55Rank 3Record 7-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5442, 5576, 2654

/ 100 compat

Projected

135.1 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 5442, 5576, 2654

Auto

18.0 12%

Teleop

87.1 58%

Endgame

43.9 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5141, 5275, 167

/ 100 compat

Projected

138.9 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 5141, 5275, 167

Auto

38.1 27%

Teleop

60.0 43%

Endgame

42.6 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.51 · Blue 1.54

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score135.1pts

Blue projected score138.9pts

Red win probability49%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 48%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -3.7
Score range: 106–168
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 380 vs event baseline 159.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

284.7Season APEX401.4

18Auto38.1

87.1Teleop60

43.9Endgame42.6

36Consistency23

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	53	65
teleop	2	165
endgame	14	81
foul	0	0
total	69	311

Result

Final score

69 – 311

Prediction correct · off by 119.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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