Qualification · Qualification 57

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

62.72 – 57.34

52%48%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

71 – 33

Prediction correct · off by 16.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 217.5 ±20

8822Lc3 Thunderbirds

Provisional

Season APEX 85.4Event APEX 24.58Rank 40Record 3-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

3723TEKnights

Provisional

Season APEX 66.4Event APEX 31.91Rank 24Record 5-3-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

3298ArrowBots

Season APEX 65.7Event APEX 6.23Rank 28Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 94

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 202.6 ±22.5

8737Rocket Rampage#8737

Provisional

Season APEX 57.9Event APEX 39.41Rank 42Record 3-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

8766The Black Machine

Provisional

Season APEX 70.1Event APEX 2.28Rank 49Record 2-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

9579Tech Devils

Provisional

Season APEX 74.6Event APEX 15.65Rank 48Record 2-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8822, 3723, 3298

/ 100 compat

Projected

62.7 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 8822, 3723, 3298

Auto

36.4 58%

Teleop

18.0 29%

Endgame

8.0 13%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8737, 8766, 9579

/ 100 compat

Projected

57.3 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 8737, 8766, 9579

Auto

21.6 37%

Teleop

25.7 44%

Endgame

10.7 18%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.48 · Blue 1.36

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score62.7pts

Blue projected score57.3pts

Red win probability52%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 40%, blue 35%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 5.4
Score range: 28–92
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 104 vs event baseline 161.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

217.5Season APEX202.6

36.4Auto21.6

18Teleop25.7

8Endgame10.7

2Consistency19

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	18	21
teleop	23	5
endgame	30	2
foul	0	5
total	71	33

Result

Final score

71 – 33

Prediction correct · off by 16.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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