Qualification · Qualification 56

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

186.51 – 190.57

49%51%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

279 – 107

Prediction missed · off by 88 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 422.8 ±15.4

4728ROCORI Robotics

Season APEX 236.2Event APEX 175.93Rank 5Record 7-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6420Fire Island Robotics

Season APEX 86.1Event APEX -12.93Rank 30Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 91

9092Tower Robotics

Season APEX 100.5Event APEX 23.51Rank 17Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 77

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 361.4 ±20

6419Kernel Chaos

Season APEX 165.6Event APEX 116.87Rank 10Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11210MACHS Raiders 1

Provisional

Season APEX 111.8Event APEX 48.1Rank 21Record 4-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

5935Tech Tigers

Provisional

Season APEX 84Event APEX 25.6Rank 31Record 3-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4728, 6420, 9092

/ 100 compat

Projected

186.5 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 4728, 6420, 9092

Auto

32.6 20%

Teleop

106.4 65%

Endgame

25.0 15%

Strengths

· 4728 anchors offense

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6419, 11210, 5935

/ 100 compat

Projected

190.6 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 6419, 11210, 5935

Auto

40.2 20%

Teleop

100.9 51%

Endgame

56.1 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.45 · Blue 1.68

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score186.5pts

Blue projected score190.6pts

Red win probability49%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 41%, blue 60%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -4.1
Score range: 158–220
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 386 vs event baseline 160.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

422.8Season APEX361.4

32.6Auto40.2

106.4Teleop100.9

25Endgame56.1

73Consistency1

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	18	26
teleop	164	62
endgame	92	14
foul	5	5
total	279	107

Result

Final score

279 – 107

Prediction missed · off by 88 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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