Qualification · Qualification 55

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

107.32 – 266.39

12%88%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

35 – 125

Prediction correct · off by 106.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 280.9 ±17.5

10476Thunderbots

Provisional

Season APEX 113.8Event APEX 25.27Rank 19Record 5-3-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

7531Servos Strike Back

Season APEX 75.8Event APEX 47.21Rank 46Record 2-6-0Status establishedConfidence 91

648QC ELITE Flaming Squirrels

Season APEX 91.3Event APEX 34.84Rank 37Record 3-5-0Status establishedConfidence 91

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 392.1 ±17

11219North Union Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 96.9Event APEX 26.65Rank 13Record 5-3-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

5914Robotic Warriors

Season APEX 73.6Event APEX 45.63Rank 23Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 92

5809The Jesubots 5809

Season APEX 221.6Event APEX 194.11Rank 4Record 7-1-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10476, 7531, 648

/ 100 compat

Projected

107.3 pts

~0.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 10476, 7531, 648

Auto

37.5 36%

Teleop

47.2 45%

Endgame

19.9 19%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11219, 5914, 5809

/ 100 compat

Projected

266.4 pts

~2.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 11219, 5914, 5809

Auto

33.2 14%

Teleop

164.0 71%

Endgame

33.2 14%

Strengths

· 5809 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.71 · Blue 2.33

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score107.3pts

Blue projected score266.4pts

Red win probability12%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 43%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -159.1
Score range: 78–295
Upset likelihood: 12%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 160 vs event baseline 162.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

280.9Season APEX392.1

37.5Auto33.2

47.2Teleop164

19.9Endgame33.2

27Consistency34

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	30
teleop	4	51
endgame	10	34
foul	5	10
total	35	125

Result

Final score

35 – 125

Prediction correct · off by 106.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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