Qualification · Qualification 54

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

8.64 – 169.86

12%88%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

81 – 57

Prediction missed · off by 92.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 312.8 ±19.7

9543Cyclone Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 104.9Event APEX 14.87Rank 27Record 4-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

9061Mechanical Mutts

Provisional

Season APEX 63.6Event APEX -30.54Rank 39Record 3-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

5557BB-R8ERS

Season APEX 144.3Event APEX 24.31Rank 41Record 3-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 231.4 ±17.7

525Swartdogs

Season APEX 69.7Event APEX 62.87Rank 33Record 3-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6455The Coded Collective

Provisional

Season APEX 72.2Event APEX 48.94Rank 43Record 2-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

3055Furious George

Season APEX 89.5Event APEX 58.05Rank 34Record 3-5-0Status establishedConfidence 89

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9543, 9061, 5557

/ 100 compat

Projected

8.6 pts

~0.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 9543, 9061, 5557

Auto

33.5 100%

Teleop

-18.0 0%

Endgame

-7.8 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 525, 6455, 3055

/ 100 compat

Projected

169.9 pts

~2.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 525, 6455, 3055

Auto

0.1 0%

Teleop

113.0 68%

Endgame

52.9 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.7 · Blue 2.25

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score8.6pts

Blue projected score169.9pts

Red win probability12%

Event bonus sample174alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 42%, blue 44%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -161.2
Score range: -21–200
Upset likelihood: 12%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 138 vs event baseline 164.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

312.8Season APEX231.4

33.5Auto0.1

-18Teleop113

-7.8Endgame52.9

24Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	21
teleop	31	29
endgame	28	7
foul	5	0
total	81	57

Result

Final score

81 – 57

Prediction missed · off by 92.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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